Supreme Court announces Monday opinions, Trump ballot case decision likely

Although nothing is certain with SCOTUS, it is sensible for all of us to prepare for the Fourteenth Amendment case to be the ruling we get at 10 a.m. Monday.

[Update, 12:20 p.m. March 4: Read the Law Dork report on the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that Colorado can’t kick Trump off the ballot here.]

The U.S Supreme Court is expected to release opinions in one or more argued cases on Monday morning. The timing of the announcement strongly suggests a decision is coming in Donald Trump’s appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court decision that the Fourteenth Amendment bars Trump from being president and state law prevents his inclusion on the state’s presidential primary ballot.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s calendar only reflected the change on Sunday — a sign that there was last-minute finalization of a decision allowing its release on Monday. Back and forth over elements of the opinion or more likely disagreements among the majority opinion and concurring and/or dissenting opinions in a case are ordinary, but the court generally announces opinion days at least by the Friday before the week — so a Sunday announcement stands out.

The only case that would appear to require such immediate action is the challenge to Trump’s inclusion on Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, for which the court heard oral arguments on Feb. 8. The Colorado primary is Tuesday, so it seems likely that the justices were able to finalize the opinion or opinions in order for them to be released on Monday.

That said, the Supreme Court does not always take the action that logically appears obvious in these moments. We also, for example, are yet to hear from the court on the South Carolina redistricting case that it heard on Oct. 11 — despite the fact that both parties asked for a resolution by Jan. 1.

We were expecting the justices to act quickly on the Trump Fourteenth Amendment case, though, and Monday is the last day for them to rule before the primary, so it is sensible for all of us to prepare for that to be the ruling we get at 10 a.m. Monday.

As a reminder, there were six main questions at issue in the run-up to arguments in the case:

• Does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment cover a president who engaged in insurrection?

• Does Section 3 disqualification include the presidency?

• Had Donald Trump “engaged in insurrection” under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment?

• Does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment allow states to act without additional authorization from Congress?

• Does the U.S. Constitution allow state courts to enforce Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment?

• Does Colorado law allow the Colorado courts to conclude that Trump violated Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment and order that he be removed from a primary ballot?

Based on the justices’ questions on Feb. 8, it is almost certain that the court will keep Trump on the ballot when it issues its decision.

As I wrote at the time:

After a little more than two hours of arguments Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court appeared all but certain to rule that, at least under current federal law, Donald Trump can appear on Colorado’s Republican presidential primary ballot, reversing the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to the contrary.

The question, of course, is how they do so. Will they do so in a way that only addresses Colorado’s primary and leaves the larger questions unresolved? In short, how many of these questions will they answer?

As many have argued, including me, it is essential that the court answer all of the Fourteenth Amendment questions to prevent the potential for what some of the nation’s leading election law experts warned could be “chaos” after the election if these questions aren’t resolved now.

Law Dork will have a full report on what the court does — and what it means — as soon as practicable, so be ready and stay tuned.