Eight areas to watch as the new Trump administration takes shape

I do not know what's going to happen. I do know that I will be here, reporting on what happens and telling you how I see it fitting into our world and lives, as best I can.

There is a lot that’s going to happen between now and January 20, 2025, so I wanted to lay out some of the areas on which I will be focused — and how I will be focusing on them — when it comes to the incoming Trump administration.

Staffing decisions

As we learned from the first Trump administration, Donald Trump is not great at picking people. And, sometimes when he thinks he is, that can mean very bad things for large groups of people. On top of that, he’s fickle — whether it’s based on actual policy disagreements, ego, perceived disloyalty, or something else — so there is likely to be significant turnover in the administration.

But, the first choices will be significant and important, as they likely (but who knows!) will last a while and will be most directly responsible for implementing Trump’s campaign pledges.

On top of that, there is also the question of Trump’s limited attention and who, if not him, will be tasked with figuring things out. (In addition to Howard Lutnick, who was the co-chair of the pre-election transition preparation efforts, JD Vance, Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Stephen Miller have been the names most frequently discussed as playing key roles in the who’s who discussions.

Per The New York Times, Trump “is most keenly interested, aides and advisers say, in a handful of roles: attorney general, C.I.A. director, White House counsel and secretaries of Defense, State and Homeland Security.”

There are possible names in the story, so feel free to check them out, but I would just reiterate a point made in the story: It’s hard to talk about such selections with Trump because he is so undisciplined. The list could be thrown out if the right (or wrong) person recommends someone altogether different at the right (or wrong) moment.

Also of note: The New York Times lists for those six positions contain no women. For any of them.

There are, of course, many other significant positions, and, depending on who ends up where, different departments and agencies could end up taking up more of less of my time. Like everything else right now, this is a shifting landscape.

All of these first personnel decisions, though, are important to gleaning whether Trump plans to start this administration as a sort of continuation of his first term, as something far different and potentially immediately dangerous to our democracy, or as some point in between those two places.

When it comes to lower staffing positions, they, too, can be significant. One example: Do people who were involved with Project 2025 get relevant positions in key agencies to be able to start pushing to implement that vision?

The first 100 days

The reason why the first 100 days matters is that a presidency is actually much shorter than it seems. Before you know it, they’re readying for midterms. And, if they take in losses in the midterms, especially if they lose a chamber of Congress, the president’s power in those second two years can be significantly diminished.

As such, getting out of the gate running is important. There are already signs that Trump is not doing everything to start on the most effective note possible, which is both unsurprising and, if you want a world in which he squanders his most effective period, good. In the most dangerous timeline, it could be the first sign that there will be no rules this time and I will have to quickly start covering it that way.

That said, there will be a 100-day plan. People like Stephen Miller, in particular, are methodical planners and are eager to be in power.

To that end, I am going to be watching Trump’s steps on all fronts in the first 100 days, but it is important to realize that the danger of Miller is not only that he is driven and empowered, but also that he is doing so, primarily, within the area of immigration — where the executive is given far more freedom to do as it pleases, particularly, given this Supreme Court, when Republicans are in the White House. This could be a horrifying era on this front — even if promised deportation efforts are attempted, let alone carried out — and I will do my best to keep on top of it and to keep you informed.

Certainly, I also will be on guard for early action regarding reproductive rights and LGBTQ people’s lives.

Within agencies, I will be on the lookout for areas where the policies of the Biden administration were already being challenged for efforts to withdraw policies or reverse them — on immigration, reproductive rights, racial equality, LGBTQ equality, and the environment, among countless other areas.

I will be watching, as people get into positions, to see whether aspects of Project 2025 start becoming policy.

And, as with the first Trump administration, I will be on the lookout for new, extreme — and often poorly devised — efforts to advance Trump’s vision.

The Supreme Court

Yes. There is the Supreme Court. I’ve already written about how a Trump victory could change the trajectory of the current term — and now will be watching for and documenting that.

Additionally, the question of whether Justices Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito announce their retirements in the near future now is front and center to allow Trump to name younger justices to replace them. Notably, though, Leonard Leo has pushed back against the call for near-immediate retirements.

Something else to watch with the current court now, and especially once Trump takes office, is whether the justices start taking different kinds of cases. One reason the cases could begin to look different is newfound confidence from the Republican appointees that they will maintain a healthy majority for the foreseeable future.

The Biden administration, in September, asked the Supreme Court to take up an appeal in the challenge to a requirement under the Affordable Care Act that insurance plans cover pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the drug that prevents transmission of HIV to a person taking it. Under a decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, the case threatens a wide swath of preventative care coverage requirements. What happens next with that case could upend preventative care in America.

And, I will be watching Chief Justice John Roberts, as well as Justices Brett Kavanugh and Amy Coney Barrett. Does their pairing in a handful of cases in this past term disappear as one or more of them moves closer to Thomas, Alito, and Justice Neil Gorsuch on the far right side of the court? I’ll have more on this in a standalone piece, but I just wanted to highlight it here since it is so interconnected with Trump’s election.

Lower courts

I’ve already written about this recently as well, but the main question now is how much the Biden administration and Democratic Senate can and will do to fill remaining vacancies in the closing days of the the 118th Congress.

I am watching.

Other existing litigation

Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal prosecution of Trump appears to be winding down.

That will not be all.

The mifepristone case is still out there, and the Trump administration could take action that changes the case — or another one that is filed in the new year — and the use of the medication abortion drug. Cases challenging the Biden administration’s Title IX sex discrimination rule, which seemed headed to the Supreme Court, are likely to be stopped in their tracks under the Trump administration. Challenges to Environmental Protection Agency and other agency rules could become moot over time as the Trump administration withdraws rules. Antitrust lawsuits brought by the Justice Department under the Biden administration could be dismissed.

These are just some of dozens and dozens of areas across the federal government where pending litigation could shift, reverse, or end in the coming months.

Congress

Although House control is still not certain, Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. That, importantly, means that, for the most part, Trump will be able to get his nominees confirmed.

If that Democrats do manage to take the House, that would be significant — by creating a mechanism to be able to stop Trump plans that require legislation. It also would give Democrats a not insignificant voice in the budget.

But, even if Democrats do not pull that off, it’s important to remember how narrow control is in both chambers. If Mike Johnson remains the House speaker, he will constantly face losing the speakership — and almost certainly will remain reliant on Democrats at times. And, in the Senate, too, control is likely to be by two or three votes. Although that often will be plenty, it does mean that there remains the possibility that a proposal or nomination could be unable to secure majority support.

State, organizational, and other institutional responses

As the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office, those ready to push back are preparing as well. From Democratic trifecta states to legal and political organizations, efforts have already begun and will only intensify in the coming weeks.

Governors, attorneys general, state lawmakers, and local leaders will begin making plans and deciding how and when to work with or challenge the new administration. I will be watching how those decisions develop, identifying the leading actors, and talking with the people figuring it out.

I will be watching and reporting on those actions and decision, but also holding those institutions — and the people behind them — accountable when I think that’s necessary.

Individual responses

As we learned often in the first Trump term, our institutions cannot always protect us — and sometimes that don’t appear to even want to do so. To that end, I will also be watching for the individual stories — the people whose names we are going to learn because of the actions they take, the help they give, the programs they start, the difference they make.

I will not even pretend to tell you that I have the slightest clue how this is going to unfold.

I do know that I will be here, reporting on what is happening and telling you how I see it fitting into our world and lives, as best I can.